Method & disclaimer

What this is

A purely analytical and educational tool that explores how AI and statistics can model football match outcomes for the FIFA World Cup 2026. We surface fixtures where our model believes the bookmaker odds underprice an outcome — a so-called value bet.

We do not take bets, hold funds, recommend stakes, or guarantee outcomes. We are not affiliated with any sportsbook.

Data inputs

• Recent form (last 5 results)
• Goals scored / conceded and xG / xGA
• FIFA ranking differential
• Prematch decimal odds (1X2 + Over/Under 2.5)
• Team news — injuries, suspensions, returns

Model

Recommendations are generated by our proprietary AI model, combining FIFA rank, recent form, xG / xGA, curated team news (injuries, suspensions, returns), and the market-implied probabilities derived from prematch decimal odds. The AI returns calibrated 1X2 and Over/Under 2.5 probabilities and short, evidence-led rationales for any selection it flags.

Value = AI probability − implied probability (after removing the bookmaker overround). Picks with value ≥ 5% are surfaced. Confidence tiers: low (5–9pt edge), medium (10–14pt), high (15+pt). If the AI service is unavailable we transparently fall back to a deterministic heuristic so the page still renders.